CeMiSS - Osservatorio Strategico 8/2015 pp. 133-135
ISBN 978-88-99468-10-1
Brief
general overview
The
28th of September hundreds of Taliban have overrun the northern city of Kunduz,
taking control of areas, military bases, police compounds, governmental
buildings and freeing hundreds of prisoners from detection centers. The city of
Kunduz – which is symbolically and strategically important – is the first
provincial capital taken by the Taliban; it shows the incapability and the low
operational level of the Afghan National Security Forces and the lack of
support by the Nato train, advise and assist role of the Resolute Support
Mission. Why is the city of Kunduz important? Because it represents a gateway
to Afghan northern provinces and neighboring Central Asian countries. This
event represents a clear indicator of the worsening security situation in Afghanistan,
despite the presence of Nato and Us forces. This could force the US to maintain
more troops on the ground in order to contain the Armed Opposition Groups
expansion.
The Taliban fragmentation
Taliban
released a statement of the movement’s new leader, Akhtar Muhammad Mansour, in
which he encouraged unity union and harmony within the Taliban and rejected the
ongoing peace process involving Kabul’s regime, US and Pakistan. Mansour was
chosen as the new leader and two hard-liners from the Haqqani Network - Mawlawi
Haibatullah Akhunzada and Mullah Sirajuddin Haqqani, the son of Jalaluddin
Haqqani founder of the hard-line network - were appointed as his deputies.
Mansour, who was said to have been interested to peace talks in July declared
that ‘the jihad will continue until an Islamic system will be established.’ He
indicated the peace process as the ‘words of the enemy.’
In an odd twist mirroring the events of the Taliban, Pakistani media reported that Jalaluddin Haqqani, the founder of the Haqqani network, died over one year ago. The Taliban denied his death in a statement on the official Islamic Emirate website that is purportedly from Haqqani endorsing Mansour as the new leader.
In an odd twist mirroring the events of the Taliban, Pakistani media reported that Jalaluddin Haqqani, the founder of the Haqqani network, died over one year ago. The Taliban denied his death in a statement on the official Islamic Emirate website that is purportedly from Haqqani endorsing Mansour as the new leader.
A group of pro-taliban Ulema,
religious clerics, have failed to resolve tensions between Mullah Akhtar
Mansoor and his opponents and the dissident. The 23rd of September the Ulema council
stated that the new leadership after mullah Omar’s demise had been appointed
following an incorrect procedure because without the principle of the
unanimously of all ulema, members of the leadership council, military
commanders and influential elders. In addition, the ulema council (comprising
former Taliban ministers, governors, commanders and high-ranking officials)
also asked the United States to expel their military forces from Afghanistan. This occurs as Afghanistan Islamic Movement Fidai Mahaz (former Taliban),
claimed that there has been no breakthrough to resolve issues among the Taliban
leadership despite forcing Mullah Yaqoob (the son of mullah Omar and military
commander operating in Afghanistan) to accept Mullah Akhtar Mansoor as the new
Taliban leader.
The struggle for power has aggravated existing divisions over whether to
continue fighting or join the negotiation process, as well as tribal, local and
regional competitions that were once suppressed by mullah Omar’s authority.
The other major player is Pakistan which has strong leverage over
Taliban militants who moved there after the (fall of the Taliban regime in
2001), but other factions, in particular the Taliban based in Qatar, do not
trust Islamabad and oppose the negotiation process. At the moment peace talks
involving the Afghan government, the Taliban, Pakistan, and others have been
postponed.
From the security viewpoint, the
U.S. commander in Afghanistan, General John Campbell, has proposed to the
Pentagon and NATO five alternatives for troop presence in Afghanistan. The
options include keeping the U.S. military presence at 10,000 troops; reducing
the total to 8,000 or 6,000; or continuing with the current drawdown plans
(source The Wall Street Journal).
NATO and the U.S. at the
moment have about 13,000 troops in Afghanistan, the main part engaged in
training, advising and assisting, following the end of the combat mission the
31st of December 2014.
Brief analysis, assessments, forecasts
It is assessed that a large
and quickly troop reduction could increase the pressure on the weak
Afghanistan's government from the Taliban and other Armed Opposition Groups
(AOG), in particular the new threat represented by the groups affiliates to
IS/Daesh. In brief, it is tangible that the Taliban internal situation has
further deteriorated and is getting worse as time passes.
Furthermore it is assessed
that the Taliban fragmentation process will boost the conflict evolution,
imposing the role and the dynamics connected with the IS/Daesh strategic
penetration in the Indian Sub-continent.
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