Un approccio innovativo (per non dire rivoluzionario) alla lettura degli effetti e delle conseguenze delle minacce asimmetriche del contemporaneo campo di battaglia (dall'Afghanistan alla Siria, passando per l'Iraq).
ATTACCHI SUICIDI IN AFGHANISTAN TRA SUCCESSO E FALLIMENTO. UNA TRIPLICE LETTURA DEL FENOMENO
di Claudio Bertolotti
Articolo presentato in occasione del Convegno annuale SISP 2012 e pubblicato sulla rivista accademica "IL POLITICO (Univ. Pavia, Italy) 2013, anno LXXVIII, n. 1, pp. 142-170.
buona lettura
Abstract - During the last decade, Armed opposition groups began to employ a new tactic on the Afghan battlefield: the suicide attack, a military technique based on a political strategy.
According to the Author’s data-base (1003 actions during the period 2001-2012),suicide attacks has augmented progressively.
From single cases in 2001 and 2002, attacks increased by an order of magnitude; from 2008 to 2012, while the total number of attacks has decreased marginally, it remains at a high level. However, while the boost in attacks in 2005-2007 represents a concern, a greater reason for concern is the rise of available suicide bombers recorded in 2008-2011.
May we conclude that it’s a successful technique or not?Author of the article proposes a new approach to data analysis, the «triple way to read method: Actions-Events-Subjects».
Thanks to this innovative process it is now possible understand new trends and developments of the Afghan phenomenon, analyzing, furthermore, direct and indirect results obtained on strategic, operational and tactical levels.
From single cases in 2001 and 2002, attacks increased by an order of magnitude; from 2008 to 2012, while the total number of attacks has decreased marginally, it remains at a high level. However, while the boost in attacks in 2005-2007 represents a concern, a greater reason for concern is the rise of available suicide bombers recorded in 2008-2011.
May we conclude that it’s a successful technique or not?Author of the article proposes a new approach to data analysis, the «triple way to read method: Actions-Events-Subjects».
Thanks to this innovative process it is now possible understand new trends and developments of the Afghan phenomenon, analyzing, furthermore, direct and indirect results obtained on strategic, operational and tactical levels.
Introduzione - L’argomento affrontato in questo articolo è basato su una ricerca analitica che si è alimentata da fonti complementari: da un lato l’attività di ricerca sul campo durata circa due anni – avviata dall’Autore attraverso la “privilegiata” posizione di caposezione counter-intelligence e sicurezza della missione Isaf a Kabul nei periodi 2005-06 e 2007-08 –, dall’altro lato la raccolta e l’analisi dei dati e delle informazioni open source e di quelle classificate rese disponibili attraverso l’Afghan War Diary di Wikileaks – materiale rappresentato da tutti i dettagliati report tattici (in prevalenza Intrep – intelligence report – e Increp – incident report) prodotti dalle forze di sicurezza della Coalizione militare.
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