The foreign military presence will continue, on the one hand, with the NATO’s contribute – ‘advise’, ‘assist’ and ‘train’ – and, on the other hand, with the US enduring effort on the battlefield – a separated ‘combat mission’ (formally ‘counter-terrorism’) under US responsibility.
Several threats to stabilization can be identified: firstly the enduring permanent conflict and the inadequate Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF); in particular, the stepped-up transition of security responsibilities from ISAF to Afghan forces and the closure of international forward operating bases was met with increased attacks by AOG.
Potential encouraging development are also on the ground: the International community commitment to Afghanistan, the natural and mineral resources, the commercial-export businesses, and the primary role of China and Iran. Furthermore, cooperation and support offered by Italy, Germany, Turkey and US represent another important variable.
The threats to Afghanistan stability are: the reduced presence of international troops – which lead to a lack in security conditions – and the increased operational capabilities of the Armed Opposition Groups (AOGs) able to destabilize the country.
II. Power-sharing process;
III. Constitutional revision;
IV. September political election.
Analysis, assessment, considerations
In brief, the short-term scenario may be characterized by:
I. General increasing of conflicts (consequence of internal actors – Afghan AOGs – and external newcomers – ISIS),
II. Reduction of the role of the Afghan State,
III. political and social instability.
Furtherly, the Afghan State is:
- politically weak and unable to manage the balance of power;
- vulnerable to AOGs pressure;
- unstable from the security perspective;
- not capable to manage the financial budget.
For these reasons, the Afghan state – limited in governance, economically dependent and unable to contrast the insurgency – is looking for a political compromise with the AOGs. Realpolitik imposes limits to its ambitions.