by Claudio Bertolotti
Afghanistan
opposition parties are engaged in an increasingly violent offensive.
Negotiations are likely to dictate crucial counterbalances to domestic
and regional dynamics.
Claudio
Bertolotti’s analysis underlines that conflicts involve not only the
Afghan armed opposition groups, but also foreign actors, bringing the
long-standing Afghan issue to a global level.
Brief general overview
Afghan Armed opposition groups (AOGs) are conducting a
growing military offensive and are moving to a possible and profitable
political negotiation process which could impose, on the one hand, a
significant new equilibrium on national and regional dynamics. On the other
hand, the political process could open to new intra-insurgency conflicts
because of the risk of a fragmentation of the AOGs; a fragmentation that could
be facilitated by the ISIS&Co. attempt to destabilize the region.
Between the two groups, the Afghan government, the US,
and the regional powers are trying to convince the Taliban about the advantages
and the benefits deriving from a political agreement. Meetings and talks are
ongoing at present and in agenda for the future and involving governmental
representatives, AOGs members, civil society, NGOs, and countries, as
demonstrated by Qatar, China, Norway, United Arab Emirates.
Outcomes of the afghan
dynamics
On the one hand, Pakistan urges Afghanistan's Taliban
to join in peace talks. It is a clear indicator of the Pakistani concern to
maintain a primary role in the influence-process
of the Afghan dynamics. For the first time, Islamabad has denounced the ‘spike
in violence’ stemming from the Taliban new spring
offensive, declaring peace, dialogue and reconciliation
is the only solution to end war. This could open to a new
relationship between Kabul and Islamabad.
On the
other hand, more U.S. troops will remain in Afghanistan. The Obama
administration decided to maintain more troops in Afghanistan next year than it
had intended, effectively upending its drawdown plans in response to roiling
violence in the country and in support to the Afghan government which had
requested flexibility on the pace of the drawdown. It is a consequence of the
recent events in Syraq, where Iraqi military forces collapsed in the face of an
offensive by the Islamic State (ISIS). In synthesis, US forces will provide
combat support to Afghan troops in order to prevent detrimental strategic
effects.
Analysis,
assessments, forecasts
Afghan
four main short term scenarios.
1. First
scenario. The dynamic nature of ISIS could lead the Taliban to a political
solution with the Afghan government opening to a substantial power-sharing
process; this could facilitate a substantial disengagement of the US lead
foreign combat troops. Possible, unlikely.
2.
Second scenario. Competition with ISIS could drive to a new phase of civil war
characterized by augment of violence as consequence of the conduct of
‘spectacular actions’ finalized to obtain media-attention effects (in order to
impose the ‘ISIS premium brand’). As consequence, Taliban could concentrate
their effort on ISIS’s affiliate groups. This process cound involve marginal
actors, local groups, power groups, local and transnational crime. Probable.
3. Third
scenario: mujahidin alliance. In case of a long-period conflicts among AOGs and
ISIS affiliate groups, it is not excluded a possible ‘insurgency’ collaboration
involving the main actors of the conflict: Isis, Taliban and Hig (Hezb-e-islami
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar). Possible, improbable in the short-period.
4.
Fourth scenario. In line with the dynamics involving the Teherik-e Taliban-e
Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban could be characterized by a splintering process
where the hard-core (oriented to a power-sharing process based on the
compromise) could face the more young and radical faction not willing to stop
the fighting and induced to join the ISIS&Co. groups. Hypothesis assessed as very
likely.
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